Syllabus PS 346

Spring 2008

CRN: 34357

Professor Jane Cramer

Office: PLC 915

Office hours: Thurs, 2:00-5:00

346-4626

jkcramer@uoregon.edu

GTF: Brian Guy

bguy@uoregon.edu

Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation

Class Location: 123 Pacific

Time: T,TH 10:00-11:20am

Course Description: This course examines terrorism, focusing on the “new terrorism” which is religiously motivated terrorism combined with the possibility that these terrorists could use weapons of mass destruction. How big is this threat? What can we do about it? Terrorism is explored by examining the history of and motives for terrorism, the capabilities of terrorists, and state support of terrorism. Strategies to combat terrorism, including promoting democracy, creating norms against terrorism and pursuing nonproliferation are explored. The evolving threat from al Qaeda is also considered. This course heavily emphasizes a basic understanding of the various threats from weapons of mass destruction: chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. What are these weapons and how useful and effective are they for war or terrorism? What is the fear of the “democratization of violence”? Should we be most worried about bioweapons? We examine theories of proliferation—should the world fear the proliferation of nuclear weapons or is this threat “overblown”? Exactly how much should we FEAR this threat? What is the actual threat from “rogue states” and what should be done about them? We examine possible threats from Iran, North Korea, the case of Iraq, and Saudi Arabia’s possible connections with terrorists. We evaluate different strategies to combat proliferation: preemption, denial, diplomacy, deterrence, and defense. We study the history of nonproliferation efforts. What nonproliferation efforts have been made and how effective have they been? We consider the fact that the possible threat of “loose nukes” from the former Soviet arsenal may be changing the nonproliferation problem—what can be done? Trade-offs between strategies for nonproliferation and combating terrorism are analyzed.

Course requirements:

1.) Students must attend class and read assigned materials in advance of class. Readings compliment lectures, and attending lecture will be essential for doing well on the three exams and for writing the short paper. Reading before class will help you understand the lecture. Two 70 minute exams will be held during the term, each of these exams will be worth 20% of your final grade.

2.) One 3-4 page ANALYTICAL RESEARCH paper will be assigned, worth 20% of your grade. You will be required to turn in an outline for this paper 2 weeks before it is due.

3.) There will be a two hour final exam worth 40% of your grade—scheduled for Tuesday, June 10 at 8:00 am. BRING at least TWO EXAM BOOKS. It will be a 2 hour exam, taking place in the classroom. A review sheet of possible exam questions will be handed out in advance.

Due dates:

1.) First exam: Thursday, April 24.

2.) Paper outline due: Thursday, May 15.

3.) Second exam: Tuesday, May 20.

4.) Analytical research paper due: Thursday, May 29.

5.) Final exam: Tuesday, June 10, 8:00 am in the classroom.

Required Reading:

1.) Rosemary H. T. O’Kane, Terrorism: A short history of a big idea (New York: Pearson, Longman, 2007).

2.) Joseph Cirincione, Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007)

3.) Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, (New York: W. W. Norton, 2003)

4.) Donald M. Snow, What After Iraq? (New York: Pearson, Longman, 2009)

5.) A number of articles from the journal Arms Control Today, available on-line at: www.armscontrol.org/act/

6.) The New York Times. This course will often address current events. You are required to read The New York Times regularly because this is the paper in the U.S. to read if you are a student of international politics. Very cheap student subscriptions are available for the term at the UO bookstore. You may read it on-line, but it is easier to fully skim in paper, and maps and charts are often not available on-line (as far as I can tell). If you have never tried a real paper subscription to this paper—this is the time to give it a try!

7.) Other REQUIRED readings are available on-line through the library, and linked through the Blackboard site. If you have trouble with Blackboard—go to the library and physically find the reading using the citation provided on this syllabus or at the Blackboard web site—ask a reference librarian if you need help. There are multiple ways to find the readings assigned—find them—there will be no “excuse” for not successfully locating the readings if others successfully located them.

8.) Additional (usually short) current readings will be assigned regularly—you will be notified by e-mail and you should check the blackboard site regularly. (Make sure Blackboard is using your correct e-mail address so you receive our notices of readings!)

Course Web Site: There is a Blackboard web site for this course. You should check it regularly for materials and announcements. AGAIN--please make sure you are using or forwarding from the e-mail address Blackboard uses so that you receive important announcements—such as HINTS for the EXAMS!!!

Course Policies:

Late or missed assignments will be severely penalized! In many cases, arrangements can be made for conflicts with the paper deadlines with other deadlines—but PLAN IN ADVANCE! Advance planning is essential to being a responsible person.

DO NOT PLAGIARIZE! We will discuss this—but it is your responsibility to understand plagiarism and to make sure you do not do it!

I. Terrorism

Week 1: T,TH, April 1 & 3: Definitions, history and trends of Terrorism. What is the Concept of the “New Terrorism”

Introduction to Terrorism, defining terrorism, examining motives for terror, and ….

1.) Rosemary H. T. O’Kane, Terrorism—read entire book—pp.1-192. Very small and fast. It is truly a “short history of a big idea.”

2.) Richard K. Betts, “The New Threat of Mass Destruction” Foreign Affairs, vol. 77, no. 1, Jan/Feb 1998. See Blackboard.

3.) Richard K. Betts, “How to Think about Terrorism,” The Wilson Quarterly 30 (Winter 2006). 44-49.

4.) J. Peter Scoblic, “Disarmament Redux,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2008.

Recommended:

4.) Michael Lind, “The Weird Men Behind George W. Bush’s War” New Statesman, April 7, 2003.

5& 6.) SKIM--TWO Carnegie Reports: “WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications” from January 2004 at

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=1435&prog=zgp&proj=znpp

And “Iraq: What Next?” from January, 2003 (before the war.) At: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/iraq_report_final.pdf

7.) Other short readings of interest on Blackboard—Ackerman & Judis, Danner & Pollack. Very interesting. READ them!

Week 2: T,TH, April 8 & 10: Does America use terror as a military tactic? THURSDAY: Guest LECTURE by Ted Duggan on “Saudi Arabia, Oil and Terrorism”

Tuesday readings—continued from last week.

School of the America’s to be discussed. See, for example: http://www.soawne.org/index.html

Thursday: Saudi Arabia, Oil and Terror-- Readings:

Nader Elhefnawy, “The Impending Oil Shock” Survival, vol. 50 no. 2, April-May 2008, pp.37-66.

4.) Blackboard: George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn, “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons” Op-Ed The Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2007; Page A15

5.) Arms Control Today Fact Sheets on: 1.) Nuclear/Ballistic Missile Nonproliferation and 2.) Chemical/Biological Weapons Arms Control.

Go to: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/

Also: Arms Control Today’s brief historical overview of Strategic Nuclear Arms Control: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/#Strategic%20Arms

And: http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_06/factfilejune02.asp

ACT briefly describes the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty:

http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nptfact.asp

ACT describes the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, & Treaties, Norms & Security”:

http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/ctbtissue.asp

6.) Also explore the web site of the Federation of American Scientists.

Go to: www.fas.org Look at CBW Control and Nuclear Weapons pages (click in left column).

Week 5: T,Th, April 29 & May 1: Bomb Scare –Continued.

Read the rest of Cirincione, Bomb Scare, chapters 4-8, pp.47-158.

Possible Guest speaker on Thursday MAY 1.

Week 6: T,Th, May 6 & 8: The Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Theoretical Debates; How much should we fear proliferation? Why? What should we do? Pre-emption or diplomacy or relax?

Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons

1.) For Tuesday, read chapters 1 & 2, pp. 3-87

2.) For Thursday, read remaining 3 chapters.

Week 7: T,Th, May 13 & 15: Strategies to Handle Proliferation; Rogue Regimes—Iran & North Korea—should we care? (yes) How much?? Preemption, Regime Change and more considered: Iran—“rogue state” ripe for preemption?

1.) Sagan & Waltz applied.

2.) New York Times, Carnegie and Arms Control Today on Iran and North Korea

Tuesday: Iran—“rogue state”? Supporting terrorism?

Paul Hastert, “Al Qaeda and Iran: Friends or Foes, or Somewhere in Between?” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 30: 327-336, 2007.

Current readings TBA

See articles at Carnegie’s Iran page:

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/country/index.cfm?fa=view&id=1000089

Thursday, May 15 –Paper Outline Due!

Thursday: North Korea: Why worry? Nuclear K-mart?

Current readings TBA

North Korea—an irrational “rogue state”?

See articles at Carnegie’s Korean Peninsula page:

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/country/index.cfm?fa=view&id=1000090

NYT: Watch for current developments on Iran & North Korea!

Week 8: T, Th, May 20 & 22: Exam and What After Iraq? The value and necessity of pre-emption considered. Terrorism and Iraq considered. Is Iraq the central front in the “war on terrorism”?

Tuesday, May 20: Second Exam in class.

Thursday: Donald M. Snow, What After Iraq? Read entire book: Intro-p. 189. esp. through ch. 4 for today—the rest for next Tuesday.

Week 9: T, Th, May 27 & 29: What After Iraq? Cont’d. And —Loose Nukes & Missile Defense

Paper Due Thursday, May 29!!!

Tuesday: More discussion of Iraq—did the U.S. pre-empt WMD? Why invade Iraq if NOT WMD? What are the consequences of the Iraq War? Is terrorism worse or better if the U.S. leaves?

Thursday: The BIG, BIG, BIG, Proliferation Problem -- Threat of “Loose Nukes” from Russia & the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program

“Loose Nukes” reading—TBA.

Also NMD: Defending against Weapons of Mass Destruction?

History of Missile Defenses – a centerpiece of current strategy—does NMD undercut nonproliferation policies? HOW?

Film and discussion: Possibly clips from Frontline: Missile Wars (or possibly clips from Visions of Star Wars—excellent older film with great historical footage.)

1.) Look at Arms Control Today’s fact sheet on missile defense and the ABM Treaty: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/#missiledefense

2.) Wade Boese, “Missile Defense Budget Boosts Requested,” Arms Control Today, March 2008 at: https://blackboard.uoregon.edu/webapps/portal/frameset.jsp?tab_id=_2_1&url=%2Fwebapps%2Fblackboard%2Fexecute%2Flauncher%3Ftype%3DCourse%26id%3D_247896_1%26url%3D

Week 10: T, Th, June 3 & 5 : Deterring Terrorism, Future of WMD & The Road Ahead.

1.) Robert Trager and Dessislava P. Zagorcheva, “Deterring Terrorism: It Can Be Done,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 3 (Winter 2005/06) pp. 87-123.

2.) Robert S. McNamara, “Apocalypse Soon,” Foreign Policy, May/June 2005

3.) Current Articles TBA

June 5: Handout review questions and review for final for last part of class.

Final: Tuesday June 10, 8:00 am— bring at least two exam books to the classroom.