PS 399: The 2008 Presidential Election

 

August 2–3, 2008

 

Keith Smith

keith@uoregon.edu

 

Office Hours: Monday, Aug. 4, 10 AM to 2 PM.

Office: TBD

 

Note: Students enrolled in PS 399 (CRN 42272) are also required to enroll in PS 405 (CRN 42273).

 

This class is about the presidential selection process, which in 2008 has been full of surprises. On the Republican side, Sen. McCain’s campaign for the nomination was declared dead in the summer of 2007, yet he is now the nominee. The relatively unknown Gov. Huckabee proved a more formidable candidate than early frontrunners Gov. Giuliani and Gov. Romney. On the Democratic side, Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama continue to fight out a very close contest that may go all the way to the convention. If so, it will be the first time since 1968 that a convention has decided the nomination.

In terms of the presidential nomination contests, this class seeks answer the following questions: How did we end up with the current nominees? What lessons can be gleaned from the nomination fights? How do they fit into historical patterns of presidential nomination? How does political science understand presidential nomination politics?

The November general election looks to be just as interesting as the nomination fights. By nominating Sen. McCain, the Republicans have chosen someone with a maverick label and a reputation for opposing Pres. Bush. Will this help or hurt? Democratic party leaders are wringing their hands over the nomination being decided at the convention. Will the long nomination contest hurt their eventual nominee?

In terms of the presidential election, this class seeks to answer the following questions: How do presidential elections proceed? What effect does the Electoral College have on campaign decisions? How important is money in presidential elections? To what extent are presidential elections pre-determined? Can we make accurate predictions about who will win in the fall today?

Course Readings                       

There is one required book for this course: Wayne, Stephen J. 2008. The Road to the White House 2008. Boston: Thomson/Wadsworth.

All other readings will be available by late June on Knight Library’s e-reserve or through Blackboard.

Course Requirements           

Students must attend all weekend class sessions; take two in-class quizzes (15%); complete an online, open-book exam (30%); and write a short paper (6-10 pages) that designs a winning strategy for one of the two major party candidates (55%).

The exam will be available through the course Blackboard site at 12 PM on Sunday, August 3, and must be completed by 5 PM on Monday, August 4.

The papers are due by 5:00 PM on August 28th! All essays must be submitted through the course Blackboard site. Owing to the complexities of me leaving the state on August 5, no late papers will be accepted. The Blackboard system will shut off at 5:00 PM.

Incompletes for the paper assignment will only be granted in exceptional emergency situations (e.g., death in the immediate family or serious illness). Family visits, conferences, weddings, etc. do not count—please plan accordingly! In all other cases the grade will be based on the work completed before the due date, which may result in a failing grade. The grade “I” for an incomplete may be assigned ONLY AFTER the instructor and student have completed and signed a Contract for Grade of Incomplete which makes arrangements for the unfinished work to be completed (available on the Political Science website, http://polisci.uoregon.edu/).

Course Outline             

Part I: Presidential Nominations – The System and Its Origins                    8/2, 9:00 – 10:25 AM

 

Where did the modern presidential nomination system come from? What impact do the nomination rules have on the kinds of nominees that that emerge? What impact do they have on candidate strategies?

 

·         Wayne, The Road to the White House 2008, 2–13 & 116–136.

 

Part II: Presidential Nominations – Frontloading & Other Debates           8/2, 10:40 – 11:50 AM

 

What is frontloading? Why has it occurred? What are the consequences of frontloading? What role did frontloading play in the 2008 nomination fights? Is a long nomination fight a bad thing?

 

·         Wayne, The Road to the White House 2008, 344–350.

 

·         Busch, Andrew E., and William G. Mayer. 2004. “The Front-Loading Problem.” In W.G. Mayer (ed.), The Making of Presidential Candidates 2004. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.

 

Part III: Presidential Nominations – Who Wins and Why?                              8/2, 1:00 – 2:20 PM

 

Who wins nomination contests? What strategies do candidates use? Can we accurately predict the winners? How much control does a party exert over who wins its nomination?

 

·         Wayne, The Road to the White House 2008, 137–172.

 

·         Cohen, Marty, David Karol, Hans Noel, and John Zaller. 2008. “The Invisible Primary in Presidential Nominations, 1980­–2004.” In W.G. Mayer (ed)., The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2008. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.

 

Part IV: Presidential Elections – The Electoral College                                  8/2, 2:40 – 3:50 PM

 

What is the Electoral College? How does it work? Why was it adopted by the Framers? How does it structure presidential elections? How should we think about reforms to the Electoral College?

 

·         Wayne, The Road to the White House 2008, 13–26.

 

·         Koza, John R., Barry Fadem, Mark Grueskin, Michael S. Mandell, Robert Richie, and Joseph F. Zimmerman. 2006. Every Vote Equal. Los Altos: National Popular Vote Press, 1–23 & 33–69.

 

Part V: Presidential Elections – Campaign Finance                                       8/3, 9:00 – 10:20 AM

 

How much money is spent in presidential elections? Where does it come from? What rules govern how money is raised and spent? What strategies do candidates use to maximize their electoral dollars?

 

·         Wayne, The Road to the White House 2008, 32–74 & 350–354.

 

Part VI: Presidential Elections – Structure versus Dynamics                     8/3, 10:40 – 11:50 AM

 

Can we predict who will win the election before it actually happens? What chance do the Republican and Democratic nominees have this November?

 

·         Wayne, The Road to the White House 2008, 214–253.

 

·         Holbrook, Thomas M. 1996. Do Campaigns Matter? Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, 1–19.

 

·         “Symposium: Assessments of the 2004 Presidential Vote Forecasts.” PS: Political Science and Politics 38 (Jan. 2005): 24–40.

 

Paper            Assignment                      

Your paper assignment for this class is to write a short paper (6-10 pages) that develops a winning campaign strategy for one of the two major-party (i.e., Democratic or Republican) candidates.[1] Your paper must incorporate both primary (i.e., newspaper and magazine accounts) and secondary sources (i.e., the course readings).

 

Your paper should address the following elements (this list is not exhaustive):

 

·         Which states to focus on

·         What message(s) to use

·         What groups of voters to appeal to

·         How to involve the national party

·         How to involve outside groups

 

The paper must conform to the style guidelines presented in “A Quick Guide to Better Writing” (available on the course Blackboard site).


[1] If the Democratic race is still undecided, you can pick either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama and assume that s/he will be the nominee.